Here's a scenario for you....

Let's just say you work in an office. One day a co-worker approaches you and says "Hey I got this new computer program that will let you finish your work in half the time." Obviously you would be intrigued.
"Really?" you would say, "why doesn't everyone use it?"
Your co-worker responds"Well, we're not really supposed to use it But the management doesn't mind because we get work done quicker, and the company actually secretly encourages it because they are making so much extra money."
"What happens if you get caught?"
"Nothing, they don't even really check for it."
"I got the new program, and have doubled my work in the past month, I got a promotion and a raise."


Just think about what you would do in that situation.

Nady V Swisher redux

hmmmm sounds familiar...

From fangraphs.com

Last offseason, Swisher was shipped from the A’s to the White Sox for a haul of young players: lefty Gio Gonzalez, right-hander Fautino De Los Santos and outfielder Ryan Sweeney. Despite sacrificing a good deal to acquire Swisher’s talents, the South Siders quickly soured on the Ohio State star after he posted a .219/.332/.410 line in 588 PA. In fact, Swisher was so far down the totem pole that he rode the bench down the stretch in favor of minor league vagabond Dewayne Wise. Earlier this offseason, the Bombers acquired Nick and minor league righty Kanekoa Texeira for Wilson Betemit and minor league righties Jeffrey Marquez and Jhonny Nunez.

Swisher’s 2008 line looks very disappointing. However, as Peter Bendix pointed out, very little changed in the switch-hitter’s offensive profile. Take a look at some of Swisher’s key indicators over the past three seasons…

2006: 14.9 BB%, 27.3 K%, .239 ISO, 19.3 LD%, .287 BABIP
2007: 15.6 BB%, 24.3 K%, .193 ISO, 17.5 LD%, .308 BABIP
2008: 14.2 BB%, 27.2 K%, .191 ISO, 20.9 LD%, .251 BABIP

In most every respect, Swisher’s 2008 season falls in line with his work over the 2006-2007 seasons, when he posted wOBA’s of .368 and .361, respectively. The only big difference in ‘08, when his wOBA dipped to .325, was an extremely low BABIP. Despite a healthy line drive rate, Swish posted the 4th-lowest BABIP among all qualified hitters. That number will surely bounce back, and with it, so will Swisher’s overall line.

Nady’s 2008 season was sort of the inverse of Swisher’s. Acquired from the Pirates last July, the 30 year-old posted a career-best .374 wOBA after compiling marks of .346 in 2007 and .336 in 2006. X-Man has experienced an upward trend in line drive rate and has hit the ball with a little more authority, but his overall skill set remains about the same…

2006: 6 BB%, 18.2 K%, .173 ISO, 17 LD%, .311 BABIP
2007: 5.1 BB%, 23.4 K%, .197 ISO, 21.3 LD%, .323 BABIP
2008: 6.6 BB%, 18.6 K%, .205 ISO, 24.6 LD%, .337 BABIP

The odds of Nady being able to sustain a .300 average and that high of a line-drive rate are likely slim. If he reverts back to being a .270-280-ish hitter, his modest walk rate means that his OBP will probably park in the .320-.330 range. Nady is not a bad player, mind you, but his best role would appear to come as a lefty-masher off the bench: though he has admittedly been better over the past few seasons, Nady has a career .317 OBP versus righty pitching, compared to .383 versus southpaws. Perhaps Nady has turned a corner, but it’s more likely that he remains a high-power, low on-base player best used in favorable situations.

Most projection systems seem to agree that Swisher will be the better offensive player in ‘09:

Pre Season Predictions 1: NL East

Once a week starting now I'll take a look at one division, this week is the NL East.

Major Additions:
Francisco Rodriguez
JJ Putz
Derek Lowe
Javier Vazquez
Kenshin Kawakami
Raul Ibanez
Adam Dunn
Ken Griff....oh wait

The division of the world series champs has been incredibly intriguing the past few years. The mets keep making almost to the top, then choking and missing the playoffs. The Phillies have reaped the benefits of the shaky Metropolitan bullpen, and went on the beat the Tampa Bay Rays in the World Series.

Predicitons:
Division MVP: David Wright
Division Cy Young: Cole Hamels
Division Breakout player: Andrew Miller

Standings:
Phillies 95-67
Mets 93 -69(Wild Card winner)
Braves 85-77
Marlins 78-84
Nationals 69-93

More A Rod

Today in a press conference Alex Rodriguez addressed the media, fans, and teammates, getting very emotional at certain points. He said he and his cousin injected a substance that supposedly gave him an energy boost, with the street name bole. He again referred to his youth and naivety when questioned as to exactly what the hell he was thinking. He even said that he's not sure he took the substance correctly

Now a lot of people have come out to say that as a multi million dollar athlete, theres no way he didn't have a better idea of what he was taking, or that by his age he must have been mature enough to know better. Personally, I am more inclined to believe him. What does he have to gain by continuing to lie? I, for once, really sympathize for the guy. I made a post a little more than a week ago, that these guys aren't super special he-men, they're just people. To condemn them for lying or cheating is hypocritical. Many self righteous citizens who must be on the list for canonization have been pontificating on the talk radio forum, or on message boards that they can't trust A Rod, or any other PED implicated athletes. If you have been building these major league baseball players up as your heroes and idols, then shame on you in the first place. Take a step in the real world and focus that attention on a parent, or a doctor, soldier, or a teacher.

I guess my real point in this rambling jumble of words, is lay off my man A Rod. It behooves us Yankee fans to give him our support. If he's on his game, there is no one better.


(Photo from Yahoo!)

Big day

In a little more than three hours, A Rod will be thrown to the hungry wolves. Pete Abraham has some words of advice over at his blog:

"By the time you finish reading this sentence, Alex Rodriguez may have hired another paid advisor to help him handle today’s press conference. Here is my advice — and it’s free:

1. Admit everything you did in an opening statement. Get ahead of the upcoming book and marginalize it. You know better than Selena Roberts or anybody else what you actually did or didn’t do. Beat her to the punch. List the drugs, list the dates and apologize for it. What else can they do to you then? Do not use the word “culture.” You did the steroids, not the culture.

2. Thank the team for coming and apologize for being such a distraction … again.

3. Make some kind of grand gesture to get the public on your side. Say you will donate those bonus payments for the home run plateaus to charity. Or announce that every kid at every Boys and Girl Club in America can go to a game free on you if they sign a pledge not to do drugs. Whatever it is, make some sort of financial gesture.

4. Don’t sit up there for an hour, but answer a reasonable amount of questions. I find many of the questions people think he “needs” to answer to be inconsequential. But he does have to be accountable to some degree.

5. At the end say, “Out of respect for my teammates and our upcoming season, this is the last time I will talk about this subject. Only baseball from here on out.” Then stick to that.

6. Try and act like a normal person for the rest of the year. Stay off the gossip pages. Fire all those advisors and listen to your conscience. Treat people the way you’d like to be treated. Say what is on your mind, not what you think you should say.

Oh, and drive in 135 runs or so. That would really help."

http://yankees.lhblogs.com/

Hopefully Alex follows this advice, is open and honest, and gets all this talk over and done with as soon as it possibly can. I'll post more after the press conference.

Spring training pictures

Yahoo has posted some great spring training pictures. I'd definitley recommend checking them out. Here's just a few:

Astros Roy Oswalt

Either an Abercrombie ad, or Phillies pitcher Cole Hamels

Dodgers manager Joe Torre poses with a fan.

Here's a few from Yankees camp

Some first day rumblings

The Yanks signed Brett Tomko to a minor league deal today with a spring training invite. Let me tell you, if we see him pitch more than one game as a Yankee, the season will have gone terribly awry.

Andy Pettitte pitched most of the second half last year with severe shoulder soreness. That explains the miserable performance.

A Rod will address the media on Tuesday, He will spend the next four days practicing what he will say in the mirror. Jeter, Posada, Rivera and Pettitte will attend. Maybe the Yankees will be smart and Jeter has been practicing ventriloquism over the offseason, just put some peanut butter in A Rod's mouth and have Derek speak. Hey it worked for Mr. Ed.

Apparently the Yankees are lightening up on the facial hair rule, look at CC and Joba.



Yahoo has some other great photos from spring training.

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAYYYYYYYYYYYYY

It's finally here....pitchers and catchers report today. Excuse me, I am going to run through the streets naked screaming in excitement.

Some signings

Bobby Abreu agreed to a one year deal with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim in the Republic of California ruled by the great and powerful Schwarzenegger for a one year deal with a base salary of $5 mil that could reach over $6 with incentives. Wow Abreu coming off of a pretty good year only gets a one year deal. Tough times.

Adam Dunn agreed on a one year deal with the Nationals worth $20 million. This could cause Nick Johnson to be moved. I've always liked Johnson, he's a good player but gets hurt entirely too much. If he could put together a few healthy seasons he could be productive for somebody.

Braden Looper agreed to a one year deal worth $4.75 million with a mutual '10 option with the Brewers.

And this song is dedicated to Roberto Alomar

A Rod

Obviously a lot about Alex Rodriguez has been said over the past few days. Fans, owners, coaches, commentators, and writers have all had their say on the the latest A Rod scandal. Something about this is bothering me though. It is perfectly fair to condemn the use of steroids, to believe that an asterisk should be placed next to the stats of those found guilty of using PEDs, or even to keep these guys out of the Hall of Fame. However, to come down on Rodriguez, or ANY of those implicated in this scandal on a personal level is disgusting as well as hypocritical. Yes, these guys did something wrong, some of them even lied about it, and continue to lie about it, but in the grand scheme of the world , it really isn't a big deal. These guys cheated in a game, get over it. I've heard people on the television and radio this weekend condemn A Rod as a filthy, no good liar, a scoundral, and a criminal. There is not one of us... NOT... ONE... who hasn't cheated or lied in their life. Just because these men are multi millionares and professional atheletes, does not make them exempt form the same defeciencies and faults that any person has. They are still humans, just with more money than I could ever fathom. So it is my request that all you self righteous radio call in "experts" step off of your pedestal, put down the qurater pounder and join me in the real world.

A- Roid? Seriously?

He did it. In a sit down interview with Peter Gammons, Alex Rodriguez admitted that he was in fact guilty of using performance enhancing drugs during his time with the Texas Rangers from 2001- 2003. All I can say is ...thank god. As a Yankee fan, the last thing I wanted was for this dark cloud to be hanging over the head of A-Rod all season. The overwhelming media circus that would have ensued if he denied ever using them, or refused to comment about his alleged positive test would have made the past 5 years of media scrutiny seem like informal water cooler chat.

This was the best thing Alex could have done. For once he made the smart choice. He came clean, said he was sorry, and now wants to move on. You know what, it will. Not soon, but eventually the media firestorm will pass and Alex will be back to talking about if Derek and he still stay up late playing mystery date and eating rice krispie treats at sleep overs.

Aside from this being the smartest thing for Alex to do regarding the media, it also will make headway with the fans and Hall of Fame voters. This will go along way towards gaining the forgiveness of Yankee fans. Look at Giambi, he was able to win the fans even after admitting taking steroids. All Alex has to do is hit a couple game winning homers and he'll be fine.

The bottom line is that this won't change much. If you hated A Rod before, you'll use this as another reason to hate him. If you were a fan of A Rod before this...you still will be. As far as his Hall of Fame consideration goes, I wrote my opinion on that subject last week regarding Bonds and co. A Rod is a first ballot Hall of Famer. Since 2003, Rodriguez has been subject to rigorous drug testing and has not failed a test, unless he's still being warned by Gene Orza. He had the best year of his career, as well as one of the best seasons of any major leaguer ever in 2007, while being regularly tested.

Maybe I'm naive and he's simply moved on to a new substance to avoid detection, but I am inclined believe he has been clean since then. All in all I'm sick of all this. The book, the steroids, the talk of nicknames, and team payrolls. I am ready for some baseball...some real live actual baseball...who else is with me?

Ah Crap

According to SI.com A Rod tested positive for two anabolic steroids in 2003. He was also apparently tipped off the an impending test by Gene Orza of the MLBPA.


Exactly what the Yankees need going into the season MORE A Rod controversy. I'll write more as facts come out.

Around the league

Ben Sheets needs elbow surgery....huge shocker

Cliff Floyd agreed to terms with the Padres

Yanks made a minor trading sending Chase Wright (who was DFA'd following the Pettitte signing) to somewhere for someone.... (Brewers for Eric Fryer).

I've really been wanting to write about the infamous Torre/ Verducci book more, but wanted to wait until after I read it. Well much to my chagrin I can't get a copy of the book anywhere. So I will eventually read it and post my thoughts on what was actually said.

Steroids have been making some more news lately. Apparently Clemens DNA can be linked to hypodermic needles. This evidence really isn't going to get anyone where. How can hypo's that Brian MacNamee has been holding onto for years (how weird is that? Is this guy trying to clone the Rocket and make little angry pitchers with icyhot on their man berries?) be used as legitimate evidence. Also new evidence against big Barry Bonds has come out. Apparently there is a positive urine sample from a 2003 PED test. However, Judge Susan Illston is leaning towards throwing this evidence out unless there is "direct testimony tying it to Bonds." So although we've been hearing new stuff on the steroid front, it really amounts to a whole lot of nothing.
This all being the case, I think that despite the rampant cheating going on, you need to let these guys in the Hall of Fame. There really is no way to know, as a 100% absolute certainty, that these guys are in fact guilty. So you have to treat this as simply another era in baseball history. The 1960's was characterized as the Dead Ball era with guys like Bob Gibson being so relentlessly, disgusting, filthy, that baseball had to take action and change it's rules. The era of 1988-2006 can be called the Shrunken Balls era. Just look at these guys for what they did compared to other players of the period. 500 homers is no longer a lock for the hall. Bonds, McGwire, and even Sosa demolished mammoth home run after mammoth home run. They did more than other guys who were on steroids, and hit many home runs off of pitchers who were on steroids (Clemens, Pettitte, etc). What I personally take away from this period is how great the guys who apparently stayed clean really were. Boggs, Ripken, Griffey, Jeter, Gwynn, Frank Thomas, these are the guys who I will remember as the true stars of the time.

The Super Bowl

Wow, what a game that just was. Even though he didn't pull it out in the end, you have to give credit to Kurt Warner and the Cardinals. They put up a hell of a fight. Larry Fitzgerald really emerged in the spotlight on the biggest stage of them all as well. Congrats to Big Ben and the Steelers.

Now that the Super Bowl is done with and the football season is over (considering nobody watches the Pro Bowl) that means baseball is quickly approaching. As I write this there are only 11 days 10 hours and 54 minutes until pitchers and catchers report for spring training.